The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0733 GMT - European natural-gas prices climb to their highest level since December 2022, with the benchmark Dutch TTF contract up 1.7% to 85.82 euros a megawatt-hour. "The market is grappling with the idea that we're about to go through a large part of the Northern hemisphere winter with little Persian Gulf LNG supply," analysts at ING say. Low European gas storage levels and mandated restocking are supporting prices, raising the risk of stronger competition with Asian buyers and potential price spikes over winter. EU storage is 73% full, according to industry group Gas Infrastructure Europe, below the five-year average of 89%. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0733 GMT - The U.A.E. economy is expected to contract by 0.2% in 2026 after growing 6.2% last year, as weakness in non-oil activity outweighs continued oil-sector expansion, Citi Research says. The bank forecasts a 0.8% decline in non-oil output, reversing growth of 6.8% in 2025, while oil-sector growth slows to 1.7% from 4.3%. Citi considers the U.A.E. the most exposed Gulf economy to the Middle East conflict through trade, tourism, imports and domestic demand. However, its strong fiscal position and external buffers give authorities considerable room to respond if disruptions persist, the bank says. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)

0731 GMT - Brent crude could fall to $65 a barrel from the second quarter of 2027 if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz normalizes and regional energy infrastructure avoids lasting damage, Citi Research says. The bank assigns a 60% probability to its base case, which assumes flows recover in the fourth quarter and Brent declines to $70 in the first quarter of 2027. However, Citi sees a 30% probability of prolonged disruption, particularly to refined-product exports, or further infrastructure damage, which could keep Brent averaging $120 throughout 2027. The bank says the timing of any normalization remains unusually uncertain. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)

0717 GMT - The Gulf economy is expected to contract by 3.1% this year, reversing growth of 4.5% in 2025, as the regional conflict disrupts oil production and weighs on non-oil activity, Citi Research says. The bank forecasts a 13.7% contraction in oil-sector output, while non-oil growth is expected to slow to 1.0% from 5.1% last year. Citi says the economic impact will vary considerably across the six Gulf states, depending on their access to alternative export routes and exposure to disrupted trade and tourism. Its forecasts assume shipping through the Strait of Hormuz normalizes in the fourth quarter, with prolonged disruptions posing further downside risks. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)

0714 GMT - Oil prices fall in early European trading after settling higher in the previous session, as traders weigh supply risks from escalating attacks on Saudi Arabia against the prospect of renewed Russian diesel supplies. Brent crude is down 1.1% to $105.50 a barrel, while WTI futures slide 1.2% to $92.58 a barrel. "There's considerable skepticism over the Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire, particularly with reports that Russia has hit Ukrainian energy targets since Trump announced it," analysts at ING say. "While diesel initially saw some weakness following the U.S.-Russia deal, strength has returned." Meanwhile, attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, deadly strikes against Saudi Arabia by Yemen's Houthi militants, and soaring freight costs are sustaining a high geopolitical risk premium. OPEC+ ministers said Monday that shipping and insurance costs have surged to unprecedented levels, exceeding one-third of the value of the commodities being transported and hindering the efficient movement of crude oil and petroleum products.